This article discusses the Sestak-Specter Senate Democratic primary in Pennsylvania, where according to recent polls Sestak has been narrowing in on Specter’s lead among primary voters.
The possibility that Specter will be defeated by Sestak on the Democratic side would add him to a list of high-profile Senatorial candidates supported by the “establishment” of their parties who have been severely shaken by primary challengers. The most obvious is probably Marco Rubio, who forced Florida Gov. Charlie Crist to leave the Republican primary and run as an Independent. (Now, Rubio is the establishment candidate, but it wasn’t long ago that Senator DeMint caused waves by endorsing Rubio contra Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.) Now Specter on the Democratic side, who’s supported by people like the Chairman of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party. A similar sort of thing is occurring in Kentucky with Republican candidate Rand Paul, who is now ahead of Mitch McConnell-backed Tray Grayson. (Grayson just lost the endorsement of James Dobson, a high-profile conservative figure, who has instead endorsed Rand Paul, and DeMint has just bucked his party again, endorsing Paul.)
Back to the Sestak-Specter article. I found this part interesting, quoting the Pennsylvania Democratic Party Chairman who is a Specter-backer:
“It’s a race under 15 points. I respect the heck out of the [DSCC], the White House and everyone else who is stepping up. We’re all singing from the same hymnal,” Rooney said. “We knew going in it’s not going to be some cakewalk. For crying out loud, [Sestak’s] a member of Congress with $5 million dollars.”
What’s interesting is that the article doesn’t mention how much money Specter has raised.
As of March 31, 2010, Specter had raised $15M. Sestak had raised $3.5M. Specter had $9M on hand, Sestak had $5.3M (the only number mentioned in the article). So, as of the last reporting period Specter out-fundraised Sestak by more than 3:1 and had almost twice the cash on hand. Like McCain’s primary campaign in Arizona against Hayworth (where the numbers are even more lopsided), this speaks to a structural weakness in the primaries for Specter’s candidacy.

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