Bernard von Schulmann, the political wonk at B.C. Iconoclast, gives 3 scenarios he thinks are likely for the upcoming U.K. election on May 6th.
The key part (note: 325 seats for majority in the U.K.):
Scenario Three:
- Party Number of Seats
- Conservatives 280 – 320
- Liberal Democrats 200 – 250
- Labour 50 – 110
- SNP/PC 15 – 20
- Ind + Speaker 2
- Northern Ireland 18
This is what I think will be the most likely result on election day. I expect Labour to suffer from a poor turnout on election and this will translate into a lot of seats being lost and with the majority of them being won by the Liberal Democrats.
This result means that it is Gordon Brown and Labour that are the potential kingmakers in the next parliament. Nick Clegg is the clear leader of the Official Opposition and is the PM in waiting.
If David Cameron is at more than 310 seats, he should be able to govern with some confidence without a formal partner. If he ends up with fewer than 300 seats the parliament will be much more like the minority parliaments in Canada, Cameron will have to govern with the tacit support of the main opposition in parliament.
Von Schulmann goes on to argue for Scenario Three based on his experience with Canadian election outcomes.
Read the whole thing here.
Read more about his reasoning here, with the key excerpt being:
“[Professor Werner's] research shows that in most elections there is a bigger swing from a party to non voting and vice versa than between parties.”
In a country like Australia, which has compulsory voter attendance, this is less of an issue.
(Via Sacha Peter.)
Related: Prime Minister Forever – British 2010 here.
